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October 22, 2026FrançaisEspañol

Closing outside the Bollinger bands: what it is, and how to test it

Bollinger bands are drawn two standard deviations above and below the 20-bar average of closes. A close outside them is an unusually far move from the recent average. Some traders read it as stretched, others as strength. Here is the exact rule QuantLogic uses.

Upper bandClose above
The level the idea readsThe bar where the idea firesA drawn example, not market data.

What it is

The bands widen when price moves a lot and narrow when it is quiet, so the same rule adapts to the moment.

Closing outside is not rare on one-minute bars; it happens on most strong pushes.

The exact rule QuantLogic uses

Closed above the Bollinger band, on one-minute or five-minute bars. Below is the mirror image.

  1. The bands: the average of the last 20 closes, plus and minus 2 standard deviations of those closes.
  2. This bar closes above the upper band. Every bar that closes above it counts, not only the first.

When is it known? Known when the bar closes. On five minutes, the last five-minute bar already closed.

Versions you can build

  • Closed above / below the 1-min Bollinger band. A one-minute close outside the bands.
  • Closed above / below the 5-min Bollinger band. The same on five-minute bars.

What to look at around it

In QuantLogic, every time the idea happened is laid out with the data points around it, so you can see where it held and where it didn't:

Time of day and sessionEconomic calendar and newsVWAP distanceGamma regime, flip and wallsYesterday's value area and pivotsVolatilityNQ vs ES since the openUp or down on the day

Traps when you test it

  • Assuming price must snap back. In a strong move it can close outside the band many bars in a row.
  • Counting a run as one event. Each close outside counts; consecutive bars are worth checking.
  • Testing one reading only. Check fading it and following it, longs and shorts.

Build it and test it yourself

Open Closed above the 1-min Bollinger band in Build with QuantLogic. See every time it happened on NQ, ES, Gold or Crude since September 2025, check the long and the short side, add your own filters and run the luck test.

Build this setupSee plans

Nothing is proven until it holds live. We give no trading signals and no advice, we never hold your money or your accounts, and we never trade for you.

Questions

Which settings does QuantLogic use?
20 closes and 2 standard deviations, on one-minute or five-minute bars.
Does a wick outside the band count?
No. Only the close.

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Educational content, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. See the risk disclosure.