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Research
November 8, 2026FrançaisEspañol

We test the ideas traders talk about

Each note runs one idea on NQ, ES, gold, oil and Bitcoin futures, after costs, split into two halves of the year and checked against luck. We publish what holds and what doesn't.

QuantLogic Research

1 of 11reasons passed four of five checksMixedFiltersDoes a trading filter have a cause, or is it just a statistic?Eleven market reasons written before the test, scored on five checks per market. One passed four. One came out backwards.NQ · ES · GC · CL · BTC+9% / −14%next-hour range in negative vs high gammaHoldsPositioningWhat gamma levels really tell you: how far, not which wayNegative gamma widens the next hour on NQ and ES, high gamma calms it. Direction: no difference. Gold, oil and Bitcoin: nothing usable.NQ · ES · GC · CL · BTC6 of 6Fed-afternoon trades won, on only 6 daysLeadEventsGold after a sweep of yesterday's high: the money sits on Fed afternoonsGold shorts after a sweep of yesterday's high made their money on Fed afternoons and in the first hour. A strong reason, too few days to call it proven.GC5 of 6classic ideas add nothing over a coin flipLeadEntriesDoes a trading idea beat a coin flip at the same moment?Six classic ideas against coin flips taken at the same bars. Five add nothing. Gold's rejection of yesterday's level is the one lead.NQ · ES · GC · CL · BTC100 of 105coin-flip setups lose after costsDoesn't holdExitsCan good exits rescue a coin-flip entry?Random entries with good stops and targets on five markets: 100 of 105 setups lose after costs. Exits can't carry an entry intraday.NQ · ES · GC · CL · BTC55–61%of days reach each overnight level, like any level that far awayDoesn't holdPrice levelsOvernight high and low: magnet or myth?Reached on 55–61% of days, the same as any level that far away. No simple trade at them paid after costs.NQ · ES88 / 75 / 58%filled on 1, 5 and 15-min charts, the same as chanceLeadPrice levelsDo fair value gaps really fill?Gaps fill as often as price travels that far anyway. A retest of a big gap on a trending day is the one lead.NQ · ES · GC · CL · BTC200shuffled histories behind every luck checkMethodMethodHow we test a trading ideaCosts, two halves, a luck check that shuffles whole sessions, and no look-ahead. The rules behind every note.NQ · ES · GC · CL · BTC

How to read these notes

  • Holds: the result held in both halves of the year and beat the luck check.
  • Lead: a result worth watching that is not yet proven, often because it was found after looking.
  • Mixed: some parts held and some did not.
  • Doesn't hold: the idea did no better than chance after costs.
  • Every note uses past market data only. Nothing here is a trading signal or a promise that a result repeats.

Test your own ideas the same way

Analyze runs any idea on NQ, ES, gold, oil and Bitcoin with costs, both halves and a luck check, so you can see whether it beats chance before you trade it.

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Past results on market data, not a forecast. No advice and no signals.

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Educational content, not investment advice. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss. See the risk disclosure.