Overnight high and low: magnet or myth?

Many traders mark the overnight high and low (from 18:00 to 09:29 ET) before the open and treat them as targets: price is “drawn” to them. Is it? And can you trade them?

• NQ and ES, 283 sessions each, 15 Sept 2025 to 5 Nov 2026, using the overnight session's 5-minute bars.
• We counted how often each level is reached during the regular session, and compared that with placebo levels at the same distance from the open.
• We tested simple trades: fade the first touch, follow a close beyond it, fade a sweep through it, and head for the nearer level from the open. Micro contracts, after costs, split into two halves at 10 April 2026.
• We also tested filters written down before looking: size of the overnight range, gamma sign, news days and where the open sits in the range.

The open is inside the overnight range on 96–98% of days. Each level is reached on 55–61% of days, at least one on 94–96%, and both on 17–21%. About a third of first touches come in the first 30 minutes.

A placebo level the same distance from the open is reached just as often. The levels are not a magnet; they are simply close.

After a touch, break or rejection is close to a coin flip.

Every simple trade lost after costs over the two halves together. Fading at the level did a little better than fading at a random minute of the same day (about +0.1 R), so the levels are a small stall point, not a turning point.

None of the filters written in advance turned a trade positive in both halves.

The overnight range is usually narrow next to the day session's range, so its edges sit close to the open. A level that close gets reached often by any path the market takes. Their popularity can make price pause there briefly, which fits the small stall we measured.

Treat the overnight high and low as reference points and possible confluence, not as targets with a pull of their own. If one is touched before 10:00, the other is reached later only about a fifth to a third of the time.

NQ and ES only; about 14 months. One lead, staying with the touched side when gamma was short at the prior close, was not strong enough against the luck check and is being watched on new months. This is the past, not a promise it repeats.

Simulated results on past market data from 2025 and 2026. Research only, not trading signals or advice. Past results do not promise future ones; see the hypothetical performance disclosure at the bottom of the page.